Krill oil: Do the math

The manufacturers of krill oil claim that the phospholipid form of omega-3 fatty acids, EPA and DHA, enhance their absorption. There are indeed some data to that effect:


Here are some representative krill oil preparations available on the market:


MegaRed Krill Oil:
EPA 50 mg
DHA 24 mg
Total omega-3s (EPA + DHA + other forms) 90 mg
Price: $28.99 for 60 softgels

Source Naturals (a fine company otherwise, by the way):

EPA 150 mg
DHA 90 mg
Total omega-3 fatty acids 300 mg
Price: $24.99 for 60 softgels

Alright, let's do some simple math:

Average volume of blood in the human body (all components): 5000 cc
Percentage of red blood cells (RBCs) by volume: 45%
Total volume RBCs: 2250 cc
Percentage of total volume RBCs occupied by fatty acids:

What tests are MORE important than cholesterol?

In the conventional practice of early heart disease prevention, cholesterol testing takes center stage. Rarely does it go any further, aside from questions about family history and obvious sources of modifiable risk such as smoking and sedentary lifestyle.

So standard practice is to usually look at your LDL cholesterol, the value that is calculated, not measured, then--almost without fail--prescribe a statin drug. While there are indeed useful values in the standard cholesterol panel--HDL cholesterol and triglycerides--they are typically ignored or prompt no specific action.

But a genuine effort at heart disease prevention should go farther than an assessment of calculated LDL cholesterol, as there are many ways that humans develop coronary atherosclerosis. Among the tests to consider in order to craft a truly effect heart disease prevention program are:

--Lipoprotein testing--Rather than using the amount of cholesterol in the various fractions of blood as a crude surrogate for lipoproteins in the bloodstream, why not measure lipoproteins themselves? These techniques have been around for over 20 years, but are simply not part of standard practice.

Lipoprotein testing especially allows you to understand what proportion of LDL particles are the truly unhealthy small LDL particles (that are oxidation- and glycation-prone). It also identifies whether or not you have lipoprotein(a), the heritable factor that confers superior survival capacity in a wild environment ("The Perfect Carnivore"), but makes the holder of this genetic pattern the least tolerant to the modern diet dominated by grains and sugars, devoid of fat and organ meats.

--25-hydroxy vitamin D--The data documenting the health power of vitamin D restoration continue to grow, with benefits on blood sugar and insulin, blood pressure, bone density, protection from winter "blues" (seasonal affective disorder), decrease in falls and fractures, decrease in cancer, decrease in cardiovascular events. I aim to keep 25-hydroxy vitamin D at a level of 60 to 70 ng/ml. This generally requires 4000-8000 units per day in gelcap form, at least for the first 3 or so years, after which there is a decrease in need. Daily supplementation is better than weekly, monthly, or other less-frequent regimens. The D3 (cholecalciferol) form is superior to the non-human D2 (ergocalciferol) form.

--Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)--HbA1c represents glycated hemoglobin, i.e., hemoglobin molecules within red blood cells that are irreversibly modified by glucose, or blood sugar. It therefore provides an index of endogenous glycation of all proteins of the body: proteins in the lenses of the eyes that lead to cataracts; proteins in the cartilage of the knees and hips that lead to brittle cartilage and arthritis; proteins in kidney tissue leading to kidney dysfunction.

HbA1c provides an incredibly clear snapshot of health: It reflects the amount of glycation you have been exposed to over the past 90 or so days. We therefore aim for an ideal level: 5.0% or less, the amount of "ambient" glycation that occurs just with living life. We reject the notion that a HbA1c level of 6.0% is acceptable just because you don't "need" diabetes medication, the thinking that drives conventional medical practice.

--RBC Omega-3 Index--The average American consumes very little omega-3 fatty acids, EPA and DHA, such that a typical omega-3 RBC Index, i.e., the proportion of fatty acids in the red blood cell occupied by omega-3 fatty acids, is around 2-3%, a level associated with increased potential for sudden cardiac death (death!). Levels of 6% or greater are associated with reduced potential for sudden cardiac death; 10% or greater are associated with reduced other cardiovascular events.

Evidence therefore suggests that an RBC Omega-3 Index of 10% or greater is desirable, a level generally achieved by obtaining 3000-3600 mg EPA + DHA per day (more or less, depending on the form consumed, an issue for future discussion).

--Thyroid testing (TSH, free T3, free T4)--Even subtle degrees of thyroid dysfunction can double, triple, even quadruple cardiovascular risk. TSH values, for instance, within the previously presumed "normal" range, pose increased risk for cardiovascular death; a TSH level of 4.0 mIU, for instance, is associated with more than double the relative risk of a level of 1.0.

Sad fact: the endocrinology community, not keeping abreast of the concerning issues coming from the toxicological community regarding perchlorates, polyfluorooctanoic acid and other fluorinated hydrocarbons, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PDBEs), and other thyroid-toxic compounds, tend to ignore these issues, while the public is increasingly exposed to the increased cardiovascular risk of even modest degrees of thyroid dysfunction. Don't commit the same crime of ignorance: Thyroid dysfunction in this age of endocrine disruption can be crucial to cardiovascular and overall health.


All in all, there are a number of common blood tests that are relevant--no, crucial--for achieving heart health. Last on the list: standard cholesterol testing.

Cranberry Sauce

Happy Thanksgiving 2012, everyone, from all the staff at Track Your Plaque!

Here’s a zesty version of traditional cranberry sauce, minus the sugar. The orange, cinnamon, and other spices, along with the crunch of walnuts, make this one of my favorite holiday side dishes.

There are 31.5 grams total “net” carbohydrates in this entire recipe, or 5.25 grams per serving (serves 6). To further reduce carbs, you can leave out the orange juice and, optionally, use more zest.

1 cup water
12 ounces fresh whole cranberries
Sweetener equivalent to 1 cup sugar (I used 6 tablespoons Truvía)
1 tablespoon orange zest + juice of half an orange
½ cup chopped walnuts
1 teaspoon ground cinnamon
½ teaspoon ground nutmeg
¼ teaspoon ground cloves

In small to medium saucepan, bring water to boil. Turn heat down and add cranberries. Cover and cook at low-heat for 10 minutes or until all cranberries have popped. Stir in sweetener. Remove from heat.

Stir in orange zest and juice, walnuts, cinnamon, nutmeg, and cloves.

Transfer mixture to bowl, cool, and serve.


Apple Cranberry Crumble

Apple, cranberry, and cinnamon: the perfect combination of tastes and scents for winter holidays!

I took a bit of carbohydrate liberties with this recipe. The entire recipe yields a delicious cheesecake-like crumble with 59 “net” grams carbohydrates (total carbs – fiber); divided among 10 slices, that’s 5.9 grams net carbs per serving, a quantity most tolerate just fine. (To reduce carbohydrates, the molasses in the crumble is optional, reducing total carbohydrate by 11 grams.)

Other good choices for sweeteners include liquid stevia, stevia glycerite, powdered stevia (pure or inulin-based, not maltodextrin-based), Truvía, Swerve, and erythritol. And always taste your batter to test sweetness, since sweeteners vary in sweetness from brand to brand and your individual sensitivity to sweetness depends on how long you’ve been wheat-free. (The longer you’ve been wheat-free, the less sweetness you desire.)


Crust and crumble topping
3 cups almond meal
1 stick (8 tablespoons) butter, softened
1 cup xylitol (or other sweetener equivalent to 1 cup sugar)
1½ teaspoons ground cinnamon
1 tablespoon molasses
1½ teaspoons vanilla extract
Dash sea salt

Filling
16 ounces cream cheese, softened
2 large eggs
½ cup xylitol (or other sweetener equivalent to ½ cup sugar)
1 Granny Smith apple (or other variety)
1 teaspoon ground cinnamon
1 cup fresh cranberries

Preheat oven to 350° F.

In large bowl, combine almond meal, butter, sweetener, cinnamon, molasses, vanilla, and salt and mix.

Grease a 9½-inch tart or pie pan. Using approximately 1 cup of the almond meal mixture, form a thin bottom crust with your hands or spoon.

In another bowl, combine cream cheese, eggs, and sweetener and mix with spoon or mixer at low-speed. Pour into tart or pie pan.

Core apple and slice into very thin sections. Arrange in circles around the edge of the cream cheese mixture, working inwards. Distribute cranberries over top, then sprinkle cinnamon over entire mixture.

Gently layer remaining almond meal crumble evenly over top. Bake for 30 minutes or until topping lightly browned.

Biscuits and Gravy



Biscuits and gravy: the ultimate comfort food . . . one you thought you’d never have again!

The familiar dish of breakfast and holiday meals is recreated here with a delicious gravy that you can pour over piping hot biscuits. Because it contains no wheat or other unhealthy thickeners like cornstarch made with “junk” carbohydrates, there should be no blood sugar or insulin problems with this dish, nor joint pain, edema, acid reflux, mind “fog,” or dandruff—life is good without wheat!

While the gravy is also dairy-free for those with dairy intolerances, the biscuits are not, as there are cheese and butter in the biscuits, both of which are optional, e.g., leave out the cheese and replace butter with coconut or other oil.

Makes 10 biscuits

Gravy:
2 tablespoons extra-virgin olive oil
1 pound loose sausage meat
2½ cups beef broth
¼ cup coconut flour
½ cup coconut milk (canned variety)
1 tablespoon onion powder
1 teaspoon garlic powder
½ teaspoon sea salt
Dash ground black pepper

Biscuits:
1 cup shredded cheddar (or other) cheese
2 cups almond meal/flour
¼ cup coconut flour
¾ teaspoon baking soda
½ teaspoon sea salt
2 large eggs
4 ounces butter, melted (or other oil, e.g., extra-light olive, coconut, walnut)

To make gravy:
In large skillet, heat oil over medium heat. Sauté sausage, breaking up as it browns. Cook until thoroughly cooked and no longer pink.

Turn heat up to medium to high and pour in beef broth. Heat just short of boiling, then turn down to low heat. Stir in coconut flour, little by little, over 3-5 minutes; stop adding when gravy obtains desired thickness. Pour in coconut milk and stir in well. Add onion powder, garlic powder, salt, and pepper and simmer over low heat for 5 minutes. Add additional salt and pepper to taste. Remove from heat and set aside.

To make biscuits:
Preheat oven to 325° F.

In food chopper or processor, pulse shredded cheese to finer, granular consistency.

Pour cheese into large bowl, then add almond meal, coconut flour, baking soda, and salt and mix thoroughly. Add the eggs and butter or oil and mix thoroughly to yield thick dough.

Spoon out dough into 10 or so ¾-inch thick mounds onto a parchment paper-lined baking pan. Bake for 20 minutes or until lightly browned and toothpick withdraws dry.

Ladle gravy onto biscuits just before serving.

The Perfect Carnivore

People who carry the gene for lipoprotein(a), Lp(a), tend to be:

--Intelligent--The bell curve of IQ is shifted rightward by a substantial margin.
--Athletic--With unusual capacity for long-endurance effort, thus the many marathoners, triathletes, and long-distance bikers with Lp(a).
--Tolerant to dehydration
--Tolerant to starvation
--Resistant to tropical infections

In other words, people with Lp(a) have an evolutionary survival advantage. More than other people, they make clever, capable hunters who can run for hours to chase down prey, not requiring food or water, and less likely to succumb to the infections of the wild. In a primitive setting, people with Lp(a) are survivors. Evolution has likely served to select Lp(a) people for their superior survival characteristics.

But wait a minute: Isn't Lp(a) a risk for heart attack and stroke? Don't we call Lp(a) "the most aggressive known cause for heart disease and stroke that nobody gives a damn about"?

Yes. So what allows this evolutionary advantage for survival to become a survival disadvantage?

Carbohydrates, especially those from grains and sugars. Let me explain.

More so than other people, Lp(a) people express the small LDL pattern readily when they consume carbohydrates such as those from "healthy whole grains." Recall that the gene for Lp(a) is really the gene for apoprotein(a), the protein that, once produced by the liver and released into the bloodstream, binds to an available LDL particle to create the combination Lp(a) molecule. If the LDL particle component of Lp(a) is small, it confers greater atherogenicity (greater plaque-causing potential). Thus, carbohydrate consumption makes Lp(a) a more aggressive cause for atherosclerotic plaque. The situation can be made worse by exposure to vegetable oils, such as those from sunflower or corn, which increases production of apo(a).

Also, more than other people, Lp(a) people tend to show diabetic tendencies with consumption of carbohydrates. Eat "healthy whole grains," for instance, or if a marathoner carb-loads, he/she will show diabetic-range blood sugars. I have seen long-distance runners or triathletes, for instance, have a 6 ounce container of sugary yogurt and have blood sugars of 200 mg/dl or higher. The extreme exercise provides no protection from the diabetic potential.

Because carbohydrates are so destructive to the Lp(a) type, it means that people with this pattern do best by 1) absolutely minimizing exposure to carbohydrates and vegetable oils, ideally grain-free and sugar-free, and 2) rely on a diet rich in fats and proteins.

The perfect diet for the Lp(a) type? It would be a diet of feasting on the spoils of the hunt, devouring the wild boar captured and slaughtered and eating the snout, hindquarters, spleen, kidneys, heart, and bone marrow, then eating mushrooms, leaves, nuts, coconut, berries, small rodents, reptiles, fish, birds, and insects when the hunt is unproductive.

Capable hunter, survivor, consumer of muscle and organ meats: I call people with Lp(a) "The Perfect Carnivores."

Track Your Plaque in the news

The NPR Health Blog contacted me, as they were interested in learning more about health strategies and tools that are being used by individuals without their doctors. The Track Your Plaque website and program came up in their quest, as it is the only program available for self-empowerment in heart disease.

Several Track Your Plaque Members spoke up to add their insights. The full text of the article can be viewed here.

How's Your Cholesterol? The Crowd Wants To Know
Mainstream medicine isn't in favor of self-analysis, or seeking advice from non-professionals, of course. And anyone who does so is running a risk.

But there are folks who want to change the course of their heart health with a combination of professional and peer support. Some are bent on tackling the plaque that forms in arteries that can lead to heart disease. They gather online at Track Your Plaque, or "TYP" to the initiates.

"We test, test, test ... and basically experiment on ourselves and have through trial and error came up with the TYP program, which is tailored to the individual," Patrick Theut, a veteran of the site who tells Shots he has watched his plaque slow, stop and regress.

The site was created in 2004 by Bill Davis, a preventive cardiologist in Milwaukee, Wisc. Davis is also the author of Wheat Belly: Lose the Wheat, Lose the Weight and Find Your Path Back to Health, which argues that wheat is addictive and bad for most people's health. Davis recommends eliminating wheat from the diet to most new members of Track Your Plaque.

"The heart is one of the hardest things to self-manage but when you let people take the reins of control, you get far better results and far fewer catastrophes like heart attacks," Davis tells Shots.

Doctors typically give patients diagnosed with heart disease two options: take cholesterol-lowering statin drugs, or make lifestyle changes, like diet. It's usually far easier for both parties — the doctor and the patient — to go with the drugs than manage the much more difficult lifestyle changes, Davis says.

"Doctors say take the Lipitor, cut the fat and call me if you have chest pain," he explains. "But that's an awful way to manage care."

TYP has members submit their scores from heart CT scans, cholesterol values, lipoproteins and other heart health factors to a panel of doctors, nutritionists and exercise specialists. Then they receive advice in the form of an individualized plaque-control program. But the online forum, where users share their results with other members and exchange tips, is where most of the TYP action happens.

The community currently has about 2,400 members who pay $39.95 for a quarterly membership, or $89.75 for a yearly membership. Davis says all proceeds go towards maintaining the website.

Ilaine Upton is a 60-year-old bankruptcy lawyer from Fairfax, Va., and a TYP member. At a friend's suggestion, Upton decided to get a heart CT scan in July. Her score was higher than it should have been (22 instead of 0), so she decided to get her blood lipids and cholesterol tested, too, and sent a sample off to MyMedLabs.com.

She learned that her LDL particle count was over 2,000 ("crazy high," she says), and she posted her results on TYP. Davis advised her that a low-carb diet would reduce it, so she decided to try it.

Since July, she says she has had "excellent results" with the program, and her LDL counts are coming down.

"It would be nice to have a [personal] physician involved in this, but [my insurer] Blue Cross won't pay if you are not symptomatic, and I am trying to prevent becoming symptomatic," says Upton. "I feel very empowered by this knowledge and the ability to take better control of my health by getting feedback on the decisions I make."

Pecan Streusel Coffee Cake


This is about as decadent as it gets around here!

Here’s a recreation of an old-fashioned coffee cake, a version with a delicious chewy-crunchy streusel topping.

I’ve specified xylitol as the sweetener in the topping, as it is the most compatible sweetener for the streusel “crumb” effect and browning.

Variations are easy. For example, for an apple pecan coffee cake, add a layer of finely-chopped or sliced apples to the cake batter and topping.

Additional potential carbohydrate exposure comes from the garbanzo bean flour and molasses. However, distributed into 10 slices, each slice provides 7.2 grams “net” carbs (total carbs minus fiber), a perfectly tolerable amount. Be careful not to exceed two slices!

Yield 10 slices

Cake:
2½ cups almond flour
½ cup garbanzo bean flour
1 tablespoon ground cinnamon
1 teaspoon baking soda
Sweetener equivalent to ¾ cup sugar
Dash sea salt

3 eggs separated
3/8 teaspoon cream of tartar
1 tablespoon vanilla extract
4 ounces butter, melted
Juice of ½ lemon

Topping:
½ cup almond flour
¼ cup pecans, finely chopped
1 tablespoon ground cinnamon
½ cup xylitol
1 tablespoon molasses
6 ounces butter, cut into ½-inch widths, at room temperature

Preheat oven to 325º F. Grease bread pan.

In bowl, combine almond flour, garbanzo flour, cinnamon, baking soda, sweetener, salt, and mix.

In small bowl, whip egg whites and cream of tartar until stiff peaks form. At low speed, blend in egg yolks, vanilla, melted butter, and lemon juice.

Pour liquid mixture into almond mixture and mix thoroughly. Pour into microwave-safe bread pan and microwave on high for 3 minutes. Remove and set aside.

To make topping, combine almond flour, pecans, cinnamon, xylitol, and molasses in small bowl and mix. Mix in butter

Spread topping on cake. Bake for 20 minutes or until toothpick withdraws dry.

Recipe: Peanut Butter and Jelly Macaroons



If you miss peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, you’re going to absolutely love these peanut butter and jelly macaroons!

Not everybody loves the taste or texture of coconut. This issue is solved by the first step: toasting shredded coconut, then reducing them down to a granular consistency. This yields a macaroon consistency without the dominant coconut taste, replaced instead with the flavors of PB & J.

I’ve specified liquid stevia as the sweetener, but this is easily replaced by your choice of sweetener. Note that, regardless of which sweetener used, they vary in sweetness from brand to brand and the quantity required to equal the ½ cup of sugar equivalent can vary. It always helps to taste your batter and adjust sweetness.

Also, I used Swerve in this recipe, the erythritol-inulin mix that enhances texture, but its use is optional.

As written, each macaroon contains just over 3 grams “net” carbohydrates (total carbs minus fiber), meaning you can have several before doing any damage!

Makes 24 macaroons

3 cups shredded unsweetened coconut
2 tablespoons vanilla extract
1 teaspoon almond extract
¼ cup coconut flour
¼ cup dried unsweetened cherries (or other unsweetened berries)
2 tablespoons coconut oil
¼ cup natural peanut butter, room temperature
2 egg whites
½ teaspoon liquid stevia or sweetener equivalent to ½ cup sugar
2 tablespoons Swerve


Preheat oven to 300° F.

In large bowl, combine coconut, vanilla and almond extracts, and mix.

Spread mixture on baking sheet and bake for 10 minutes, stirring occasionally, until very lightly browned. Be careful not to burn. Remove and cool. (Leave oven at 300° F.)

When cooled, using food chopper, food processor, or coffee grinder, pulse coconut mixture until coconut reduced to consistency of coffee grounds. Pour back into bowl. Stir in coconut flour.

Place cherries or other berries in food chopper, food processor, or coffee grinder and pulse until reduced to small granules or paste. Remove with spatula and add to coconut mixture. Set aside.

Place egg whites in bowl and whip until frothy and stiff peaks form.

In small microwave-safe bowl, combine coconut oil and peanut butter and microwave in 10-second increments until warm (not hot) liquid. Stir in egg whites, followed by stevia and Swerve, and blend thoroughly.

Dispense dough onto a parchment paper-lined baking sheet using a 1 ½-inch cookie scooper or spoons.

Bake for 15 minutes or until lightly browned.

I Wish I Had Lipoprotein(a)!

Why would I say such a thing? Well, a number of reasons. People with lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a), are, with only occasional exceptions:

--Very intelligent. I know many people with this genetic pattern with IQs of 130, 140, even 160+.
--Good at math--This is true more for the male expression of the pattern, only occasionally female. It means that men with Lp(a) gravitate towards careers in math, accounting, financial analysis, physics, and engineering.
--Athletic--Many are marathon runners, triathletes, long-distance bicyclists, and other endurance athletes. I tell my patients that, if they want to meet other people with Lp(a), go to a triathlon.
--Poor at hydrating. People with Lp(a) have a defective thirst mechanism and often go for many hours without drinking water. This is why many Lp(a) people experience the pain of kidney stones: Prolonged and repeated dehydration causes crystals to form in the kidneys, leading to stone formation over time.
--Tolerant to dehydration--Related to the previous item, people with Lp(a) can go for extended periods without even thinking about water.
--Tolerant to periods of food deprivation or starvation--More so than other people, those with Lp(a) are uncommonly tolerant to days without food, as would occur in a wild setting.


In short, people with Lp(a) are intelligent, athletic, with many other favorable characteristics that provide a survival advantage . . . in a primitive world.

So when did Lp(a) become a problem? When an individual with Lp(a) is exposed to carbohydrates, especially those from grains. When an evolutionarily-advantaged Lp(a) individual is exposed to carbohydrates, more than other people they develop:

--Excess quantities of small LDL particles--Recall that Lp(a) is a two-part molecule. One part: an apo(a) made by the liver. 2nd part: an LDL particle. When the LDL particle within the Lp(a) molecule is small, its overall behavior is worse or more atherogenic (plaque-causing).
--Hyperglycemia/hyperinsulinemia--which then leads to diabetes. Unlike non-Lp(a) people, these phenomena can develop with far less visceral fat. A Lp(a) male, for instance, standing 5 ft 10 inches tall and weighing 150 pounds, can have as much insulin resistance/hyperglycemia as a non-Lp(a) male of similar height weighing 50+ pounds more.

Key to gaining control over Lp(a) is strict carbohydrate limitation. Another way to look at this is to say that Lp(a) people do best with unlimited fat and protein intake.
Low expectations

Low expectations

The Framingham Risk Calculator is a standard method used by many physicians to predict risk for heart attack or death from heart disease over a 10-year period. Low-risk is defined as <10% risk of heart attack or cardiac death over 10 years; high-risk is defined as 20% or more over 10 years; intermediate-risk is in between.

Let's put it to the test:

Amy is a 53-year old businesswoman. She is 5 ft 4 inches, weighs 150 lbs. Her father had a heart attack in his early 50s followed by the usual list of hospital procedures including bypass surgery at age 60.

What is Amy's risk for heart attack or death from heart disease over the next 10 years? If we enter her data into the Framingham risk calculator, the following result is returned:

Information about your risk score:
Age: 53
Gender: female
Total Cholesterol: 198 mg/dL
HDL Cholesterol: 74 mg/dL
Smoker: No
Systolic Blood Pressure: 120 mm/Hg
On medication for HBP: No
Risk Score: 1% Means 1 of 100 people with this level of risk will have a heart attack in the next 10 years.


So, according to the Framingham calculation, Amy has <1% risk for heart attack or death from heart disease over the next 10 years. Most primary care physicians would, at most, prescribe a statin drug and talk about a reduction in saturated fat.

Thankfully, Amy didn't fall for that bit of conventional mis-information. She instead got a CT heart scan, principally because of her father's history. Her score: 117. At age 53, this put her into 90th percentile, in the worst 10% of scores for women in her age group (50-55). By heart scan criteria, her risk for heart attack is probably more like 4-5% per year, or approximately 40-50% over the next 10 years.

Let's do just a bit more math. If Amy hadn't known about her heart scan score and no preventive action was taken, the expected progression of her heart scan scores would likely be:

Start: 117
Year 1: 152
Year 2: 198
Year 3: 257
Year 4: 335
Year 5: 436
Year 6: 567
Year 7: 737
Year 8: 958
Year 9: 1245
Year 10: 1618

In fact, given Amy's starting heart scan score of 117, it is highly unlikely that she survives the next 10 years without heart attack or a fatal heart event. Yet the Framingham risk calculator puts Amy's risk at less than 1%. Could anything be more wrong?

The folly of the Framingham calculator was highlighted by a recent publication from the large Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), in which 3600 women (45-84 years), all of whom fell into the "low-risk" category by the Framingham calculator--just like Amy--were tracked over approximately 3 3/4 years. This study generated several observations:

1) 30% of the "low-risk" women had positive heart scan scores.
2) 5% of the "low-risk" women had scores of 300 or greater (very significant for a woman). 8.6% of these women experienced a cardiovascular event like heart attack or death over the period. Women with a heart scan score of 300 or greater had a 22-fold greater event risk compared to women with zero heart scan scores.
3) Women with heart scan scores of 1 to 299 had a cardiovascular event risk of approximately 5-fold greater risk over the period.


Across the U.S., 90% of women younger than 70 years old fall into the Framingham "low-risk" category. Yet this fiction is accepted as the prevailing standard, along with LDL and total cholesterol, for determination of risk in women and men.

In my view, using the Framingham risk calculator is a misguided, misleading path, one that will mis-classify a substantial number of women who could otherwise be spared from heart attack and catastrophe.

By the way, Amy is also the Track Your Plaque program record holder (by percentage drop), with a 63% drop in heart scan score over a 15 month period.

Comments (6) -

  • lungdoc

    12/14/2007 4:21:00 AM |

    I just recently signed up to TYP. My CT score today was 794!
    I am 50 year old diabetic. My LDLs had been <70 and HDLs>50 for years. Recently found vit D was only 25 and now 66 after supplementation. HGB AIC had been 6-7 for years. I have now started concentrating on bringing it down. My most recent HS CRP was 1.3. My small ldl-p was 542 and homocysteine is 15.4
    What's my next step?

  • Dr. Davis

    12/14/2007 12:22:00 PM |

    The next step is to enter your data into the Track Your Plaque program generator to generate basic comments.

    Also, I invite you to participate in the Track Your Plaque Forum for more detailed conversations.

    I assume fish oil is part of your program, an absolute requirement along with with your vitamin D.

    You may benefit spefically from efforts to reduce small LDL.

  • Anonymous

    12/14/2007 5:29:00 PM |

    And perhaps we should do a bit more math in order to prevent terrorizing the readership (something most would not even think about because they're too frightened by the hype). If you do the simple math, you will see that only 15 women out of 3600 had a cardiac event over 3+ years of follow up. That means 4 out of 1000 low Framingham Risk women will have an event. That sounds like a pretty low risk to me.

    3600 total low risk

    5% with calcium score of 300 or more=180 women

    8.6% of the 180 women had an event in 3.75 yrs.=15 women in almost 4 years

    15 women out of the entire 3600 low Framingham risk group=0.004 or 4 per 1000 women in 4 years or 1/1000 per year.

    So with low Framingham risk, the calcium  score increases your relative risk but the ABSOLUTE risk remains very low.

  • Dr. Davis

    12/15/2007 12:11:00 AM |

    Yes, you are right: the absolute risk was low in the four year period of observation.

    Actually, there were 18 coronary events (defined as "CHD" in the study) and 24 events if strokes were included ("CVD" events).

  • MAC

    12/15/2007 3:51:00 PM |

    Dr. Davis,
        Do you Have any opinion regarding myeloperoxidase (MPO)?

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070703172506.htm

    "One fascinating aspect of this study is that this marker of inflammation precedes by nearly a decade the development of clinical coronary disease,"

  • Dr. Davis

    12/15/2007 5:05:00 PM |

    Hi, MAC--

    I think myeloperoxidase holds promise as a marker for risk. What we do about it remains an open question.

    We are planning a Track Your Plaque Special Report on unique markers of risk for 2008 that will include a discussion about myeloperoxidase.

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