Does prevention save money?

Prevention and reversal of heart disease are undoubtedly preferable to the current crash and repair model currently followed by doctors and hospital, the model that has created an enormous medical device industry to support it.

But does it save money? This debate often boils down to a metric of "lives saved per $100,000". Thus, the statin drugs (of course) have been subjected to such analyses and have been shown to be "cost-effective."

But how does a powerful heart disease prevention and reversal program like Track Your Plaque compare to the current crash and repair procedural approach to heart disease? This is a very difficult analysis, one that is subject to enormous variation, depending on the population studied and the prevalence of disease, the local practice habits (e.g., in the northwest Cleveland suburb of Lorain, virtually everybody going to the hospital for any heart problem gets one or several heart catheterizations), and other factors.

There's also the difficulty of what should constitute a prevention program. Is it like that used in the COURAGE Trial of "optimal medical therapy" that included nitroglycerin, aspirin, a beta blocker, and statin drug (which we regard as a laughably silly approach), or one like Track Your Plaque in which we try to correct the causes of heart disease, not just palliate (BandAid) them? Costs vary. The "optimal medical therapy" is very costly due to its reliance on medications to treat symptoms. Our program is somewhat costly because of the reliance on a CT heart scan and lipoprotein analysis (though, in the long perspective, our costs are modest).

We asked this question and came up with a lengthy analysis. Bottom line: Following the Track Your Plaque program saves enormous sums of money. Because of the complexity of the analysis, which is theoretical and not a real-world test, we confined our analysis to men in the 40-59 year old age group. If this group alone were to subscribe to a intensive but rational program of prevention like Track Your Plaque, over $20 billion dollars per year would be saved.

If the analysis were extended to women of all ages and men older than 59, the numbers would balloon to many more tens of billions of dollars. Such a savings wouldn't cure the healthcare system's growing financial crisis, but it sure would be a big help. Sort of like converting to a hydrid car--you don't eliminate the need for gas, but you'll save a lot in fuel costs.

The Track Your Plaque approach makes sense because it is, bar none, the most powerful approach to gaining hold of heart disease risk available. But it also makes sense from a financial standpoint. Now, if we can only convince the hospitals, the $30 million annual salary device manufacturer CEO, and my procedure-crazy colleagues that this way makes more sense.

Watch for our analysis on an upcoming Track Your Plaque Special Report.

Comments (2) -

  • JT

    7/12/2007 11:17:00 AM |

    meant to comment early, just been a bit over whelmed with work of late.  Being someone that enjoys reading about a good savings, I'm looking forward to seeing the report.  

    Awhile back, I was in the car with my father talking about weight loss.  About 6 years ago dad jumped head first into an exercise program.  He did it because he had become fat, with his body fat over 25%.  After a few years of intense working out, 2 hour workouts on aerobic and anaerobic equipment was and is common, he dropped his body fat to between 12 and 13% and weight to around 180lbs.  That was it though as he could not drop anymore weight or fat once reaching that level.  Not bad for a 63 year old but he wants more.  

    In our car conversation a week back, dad told me excitedly that for some reason he had dropped to 173lbs and his body fat is at 10%!  His voice was ecstatic.  He didn't know why this happened, as he has been traveling, eating out more than normal of late.  He thought for sure he would gain weight.  I pointed out that he was semi on the TYP diet program and that he takes 2 concentrated fish oil capsules, vitamin D, K, and niacin.  Others have reported weight loss while on the TYP program.  

    "That Dr. Davis should advertise his program as a weight loss program!" dad said.  And he is right, unfortunately or fortunately.  People are vain.  The biggest sellers in the health food industry are weight loss pills and muscle lifting products.  Tell someone that they will correct their heart problems, and while many will think the idea grand, tell them they will loose weight and look and feel fantastic, people get excited.  

    If the TYP program catches on with the general public, I believe savings will reach beyond just the cardiac medical industry.  Watch out Jenny Craig and Weight Watchers.

  • Dr. Davis

    7/12/2007 11:53:00 AM |

    Hi, JT--

    Fabulous results!

    In fact, because of some modifications to the diet that we've added over the past few years, we're going to release the "New" Track Your  Plaque nutrition principles near future. Maybe the results will be even better.

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More on ASTEROID

More on ASTEROID

Since we are on the topic of the ASTEROID trial and rosuvastatin, I'd make one more point before I start to sound like I'm plugging this drug (which I definitely am not).

In an informative Roundtable Discussion (open to subscribers to the American Journal of Cardiology; sorry) amongst Dr. Steve Nissen, principal investigator behind ASTEROID; and Drs. Vincent Friedewald, Christie Ballantyne, P. Shah, and William Roberts, Dr. Nissen made some interesting comments:


Dr. Shah: In ASTEROID, was the magnitude of atheroma volume change seen across different levels of LDL-C and HDL-C?

Dr. Nissen: No. There was no plaque regression seen in the 17 persons with LDL-Cs >/= 100 mg/dl, and there was little change in persons with LDL-Cs of 70 to 100 mg/dl. Only in persons with LDLs less than or equal to 70 mg/dl was there significant regression. The study was not powered to look for an HDL-C(which increased by 14.7%)-raising effect.



Interesting. In other words, ASTEROID, in a fairly internally consistent way, suggests that the lower the LDL is reduced, the more likely plaque regression is obtained. This is consistent with the Track Your Plaque experience, in which we've advocated reducing (calculated) LDL cholesterol to 60 mg/dl for the past several years.

Unfortunately, the message that the ASTEROID Trial sponsors, AstraZeneca, as well as the roundtable discussion panel (later in the discussion) try to make is that there is something magical about Crestor, that it yields benefits superior to other statin agents or other means of reducing LDL.

I disagree with this message. In the Track Your Plaque experience, we do aim for a similar LDL target. But we also employ a number of other strategies. We have also succeeded in regressing plaque without use of any statin drugs (though, admittedly, many people do require statin drugs to obtain LDLs in this range). We also witness magnitudes of reversal that often far exceed that seen in ASTEROID.

The Rountable Discussion is unfortunately tainted, as is the ASTEROID Trial itself, with deep drug industry financial involvement of the Roundtable participants. In fact, the discussion begins with a listing of the financial disclosures of the participants, a listing that occupies a full column of a two-column page. The potential biases of the participants doesn't necessarily invalidate the arguments, but to me suggests that participants are more likely to argue in favor of the sponsor's drug, or that participants were chosen because of these biases.

Why bother to even mention the ASTEROID Trial in a venue (the Heart Scan Blog, that is) that purports to seek unvarnished, unbiased truth in coronary plaque reversal? Because useful information can sometimes be found in unlikely places. Just like the four-year old child who blurts out an unexpected pearl of wisdom, so it can happen with the gobbledy-gook that emerges from the drug industry.

Every once in a while, they are worth paying attention to.

Comments (3) -

  • Naruwan

    4/19/2008 11:54:00 AM |

    Dr. Davis, your readers may be interested to listen to a recent BBC Radio 4 program which takes a close look at some impressive-sounding figures obtained from statin drug trials and shows how they are in fact not in the least bit impressive (e.g. a reduction in mortality from 3 in 600 people to 2 in 600 being hyped by statin manufacturers as being an over 33% reduction! Brings to mind Disraeli's adage about damned lies and statistics.

    The take home message is that statins appear to be hugely over-subscribed - the UK is gaining on the US in this regard - and statins are of no benefit for 99% of people taking them for primary prevention of heart disease.

    You can listen to the program online using the BBC Real Player at this link. Click Listen Live at the top right of the screen.

  • Naruwan

    4/19/2008 12:11:00 PM |

    My apologies, it appears that the BBC radio 4 program (The Investigation) about statins is no longer available. I think the show's transcript will be made available in due course.

    If anyone would like me to send them the mp3 file of the show (shhh, don't tell the BBC!), please leave a comment here. It's a worthwhile listen.

  • Anonymous

    8/22/2008 8:41:00 PM |

    I would like to know how long one can expect to lengthen their life by taking a statin How many actual years does it add to your life and what about the risk of cancer from taking statins over a 20-30 year period?

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